RUN: subfoss FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: ARSTAN.FILES DATA FILE PROCESSED: s-fos.rwm LOG FILE PROCESSED: s-fos.rwm_log TREE-RING DATA TYPE 4 !TREE-RING COMPACT DATA FORMAT MISSING DATA FLAG FOR GAPS -9 !MISSING VALUE FLAG FOR GAPS DATA TRANSFORMATION OPTION 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION FIRST DETRENDING OPTION -2 !1ST-REGIONAL CURVE METHOD (BRIFFA RCS) SECOND DETRENDING OPTION 1 !2ND-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 ROBUST DETRENDING OPTION 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INDEX CALCULATION OPTION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING OPTION 1 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER OPTION 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER OPTION 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY OPTION 1 !NON-ROBUST (ARITHMETIC) MEAN CHRONOLOGY VARIANCE STABILIZATION 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD FIRST YEAR 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD FIRST YEAR COMMON PERIOD LAST YEAR 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD LAST YEAR SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR SEGMENT LENGTH 0 !NO RUNNING RBAR WINDOW LENGTH RUNNING RBAR SEGMENT OVERLAP 0 !NO RUNNING RBAR WINDOW OVERLAP PRINTOUT OPTION 1 !SUMMARY STATISTICS OF ENSEMBLE PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE OPTION 3 !SERIES SAVED IN UEA CRU INDEX FORMAT |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 139 FROM -354 TO 1972 2327 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.656 0.463 1.204 4.651 0.458 0.698 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.256 0.180 0.589 2.216 0.087 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.618 0.445 1.081 3.863 0.458 0.713 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.346 0.206 0.747 2.450 0.122 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.252 0.135 -0.192 2.127 0.244 0.305 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 0.460 0.344 0.821 3.045 0.395 0.639 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 0.806 0.550 1.568 5.495 0.517 0.787 MAXIMUM VALUE 377 1.612 1.383 2.852 13.497 0.707 0.904 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD MEDIAN MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR CORR CORR HINGE HINGE CORR 1390 0.455 0.265 0.007 0.495 -0.609 0.308 0.667 0.958 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 14.49 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 0.58 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.609 FOR SERIES 28 AND 74 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.958 FOR SERIES 52 AND 54 120 YEARS |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR -354 1972 2327 0.567 0.274 0.638 3.494 0.351 0.625 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.836 0.697 0.003 0 2327 |---------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ---------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 93. 51. 118. 211. 377. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.625 0.578 0.528 0.475 0.419 0.396 0.385 0.354 0.346 0.309 PACF 0.625 0.308 0.154 0.066 0.011 0.043 0.066 0.022 0.041 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.041 0.055 0.065 0.072 0.077 0.081 0.084 0.087 0.090 0.092 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.465 0.375 0.225 0.129 0.067 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1 377 377 0.430 0.244 1.456 4.117 0.112 0.971 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.896 0.685 0.005 0 377 |---------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ---------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 93. 51. 118. 211. 377. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.971 0.959 0.947 0.933 0.921 0.907 0.892 0.882 0.866 0.853 PACF 0.971 0.281 0.097 -0.035 0.023 -0.014 -0.059 0.070 -0.058 0.003 95% C.L. 0.103 0.175 0.224 0.263 0.296 0.325 0.351 0.374 0.396 0.415 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.967 0.516 0.248 0.226 ================================================================================ |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 s-fos. 1 0.97694594 0.01424564 0.00000000 0.25032970 *** 10-YEAR MEANS OF MEASUREMENTS, CURVE FIT (X), AND INDICES *** MSMT CURVE INDEX YEAR MEANS MEANS MEANS 0 1.06 1.15 0 X 0.92 0 | 10 1.06 1.03 X1 1.02 |1 20 1.01 0.93 X 2 1.09 | 2 30 0.85 0.84 3 1.02 |3 40 0.80 0.76 X 4 1.05 | 4 50 0.76 0.69 X 5 1.10 | 5 60 0.66 0.63 X6 1.04 |6 70 0.56 0.58 7 0.97 7| 80 0.49 0.54 8 X 0.91 8 | 90 0.45 0.50 9 X 0.89 9 | 100 0.42 0.47 0 X 0.89 0 | 110 0.39 0.44 1 X 0.89 1 | 120 0.39 0.41 2X 0.95 2| 130 0.36 0.39 3X 0.92 3 | 140 0.36 0.37 4X 0.96 4| 150 0.32 0.36 5X 0.89 5 | 160 0.37 0.34 X6 1.08 | 6 170 0.33 0.33 7 0.98 7 180 0.33 0.32 8 1.04 |8 190 0.31 0.31 9X 0.99 9 200 0.28 0.30 0 0.93 0 | 210 0.32 0.30 X1 1.09 | 1 220 0.32 0.29 X2 1.09 | 2 230 0.38 0.28 X 3 1.33 | 3 240 0.37 0.28 X 4 1.33 | 4 250 0.31 0.28 X 5 1.14 | 5 260 0.30 0.27 X6 1.09 | 6 270 0.28 0.27 7 1.02 |7 280 0.31 0.27 X 8 1.17 | 8 290 0.26 0.26 9 0.98 9 300 0.22 0.26 0X 0.85 0 | 310 0.19 0.26 1 X 0.72 1 | 320 0.17 0.26 2 X 0.65 2 | 330 0.19 0.26 3 X 0.73 3 | 340 0.25 0.26 4 0.98 4 350 0.31 0.26 X5 1.19 | 5 360 0.28 0.26 X6 1.10 | 6 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 s-fos. 1 377 377 1.001 0.201 0.669 5.644 0.112 0.623 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.016 0.632 0.959 4.285 0.458 0.599 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.314 0.244 0.626 2.363 0.087 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.971 0.573 0.868 3.588 0.458 0.626 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.476 0.252 0.636 1.658 0.122 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.459 0.240 -0.304 2.240 0.244 0.149 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 0.769 0.485 0.551 2.905 0.395 0.508 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 1.245 0.737 1.187 4.563 0.517 0.709 MAXIMUM VALUE 377 2.029 1.804 3.237 15.303 0.707 0.870 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD MEDIAN MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR CORR CORR HINGE HINGE CORR 1390 0.409 0.250 0.007 0.454 -0.594 0.255 0.598 0.924 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 14.49 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 0.58 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.594 FOR SERIES 28 AND 74 67 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.924 FOR SERIES 52 AND 54 120 YEARS |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR -354 1972 2327 0.985 0.464 0.774 4.170 0.380 0.548 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.728 0.519 0.041 0 2327 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.548 0.513 0.455 0.393 0.335 0.309 0.298 0.266 0.250 0.211 PACF 0.548 0.304 0.146 0.052 0.007 0.031 0.058 0.020 0.020 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.041 0.052 0.060 0.066 0.070 0.073 0.075 0.077 0.078 0.080 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.380 0.329 0.236 0.129 0.052 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.445 0.370 0.310 0.241 0.178 0.149 0.155 0.129 0.118 0.063 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.445 2 0.349 0.215 3 0.325 0.176 0.111 4 0.321 0.170 0.100 0.034 5 0.322 0.170 0.101 0.036 -0.006 6 0.322 0.170 0.100 0.034 -0.010 0.011 7 0.321 0.171 0.098 0.029 -0.019 -0.006 0.054 8 0.320 0.171 0.098 0.028 -0.020 -0.009 0.048 0.018 9 0.320 0.170 0.099 0.029 -0.021 -0.011 0.045 0.012 0.017 10 0.321 0.170 0.101 0.028 -0.022 -0.009 0.050 0.020 0.032 -0.047 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 25001.29 24490.85 24383.09 24356.15 24355.43 24357.35 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 24359.06 24354.30 24355.57 24356.89 24353.65 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IOPT=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.321 0.170 0.100 0.034 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.50 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.321 0.273 0.242 0.191 0.141 0.111 0.087 0.067 0.052 0.0408 0.032 0.025 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.0033 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.450 0.416 0.179 0.097 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.169 0.123 0.113 0.097 0.088 MEDIAN 4 0.460 0.419 0.182 0.089 0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.229 0.153 0.134 0.125 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.051 0.121 -0.137 -0.151 -0.196 LOWER HINGE 4 0.335 0.340 0.105 0.045 -0.008 UPPER HINGE 4 0.564 0.494 0.239 0.170 0.103 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.842 0.697 0.508 0.316 0.280 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.006 0.442 0.687 4.809 0.491 0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.016 0.130 0.584 2.802 0.149 0.028 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.001 0.423 0.557 4.062 0.491 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.009 0.156 0.601 1.640 0.191 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.986 0.189 -0.532 2.243 0.210 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 0.998 0.355 0.317 3.357 0.389 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 210 1.007 0.511 0.918 4.997 0.580 0.014 MAXIMUM VALUE 377 1.084 0.897 2.885 19.540 0.902 0.184 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD MEDIAN MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR CORR CORR HINGE HINGE CORR 1390 0.530 0.136 0.004 0.552 -0.087 0.448 0.629 0.898 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 14.49 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 0.58 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.087 FOR SERIES 19 AND 45 21 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.898 FOR SERIES 52 AND 54 120 YEARS |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR -354 1972 2327 1.005 0.337 0.262 3.541 0.397 -0.077 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.499 0.223 0.070 0 2327 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.077 -0.007 -0.009 -0.032 -0.035 -0.017 0.023 0.000 0.015 -0.051 PACF -0.077 -0.013 -0.011 -0.034 -0.041 -0.024 0.018 0.000 0.013 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.006 -0.077 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 0.000 -0.003 -0.042 -0.021 0.021 0.001 0.012 -0.049 PACF -0.001 -0.001 0.000 -0.003 -0.042 -0.021 0.021 0.001 0.012 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR -354 1972 2327 1.005 0.383 0.531 3.481 0.334 0.432 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.432 0.355 0.293 0.220 0.139 0.114 0.110 0.080 0.070 0.028 PACF 0.432 0.206 0.105 0.026 -0.032 0.005 0.035 0.004 0.010 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.041 0.049 0.053 0.056 0.057 0.058 0.058 0.058 0.059 0.059 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.231 0.322 0.170 0.105 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================|