RUN: sweds-fos FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: ARSTAN.FILES DATA FILE PROCESSED: sweds-fos.dat LOG FILE PROCESSED: sweds-fos.dat_log TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA FLAG FOR GAPS -9 !MISSING VALUE FLAG FOR GAPS DATA TRANSFORMATION OPTION 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION FIRST DETRENDING OPTION -2 !1ST-REGIONAL CURVE METHOD (BRIFFA RCS) SECOND DETRENDING OPTION 1 !2ND-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 ROBUST DETRENDING OPTION 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INDEX CALCULATION OPTION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING OPTION 1 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER OPTION 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER OPTION 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY OPTION 1 !NON-ROBUST (ARITHMETIC) MEAN CHRONOLOGY VARIANCE STABILIZATION 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD FIRST YEAR 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD FIRST YEAR COMMON PERIOD LAST YEAR 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD LAST YEAR SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR SEGMENT LENGTH 0 !NO RUNNING RBAR WINDOW LENGTH RUNNING RBAR SEGMENT OVERLAP 0 !NO RUNNING RBAR WINDOW OVERLAP PRINTOUT OPTION 1 !SUMMARY STATISTICS OF ENSEMBLE PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE OPTION 3 !SERIES SAVED IN UEA CRU INDEX FORMAT |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 268 FROM 1595 TO 6663 5069 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 180 0.719 0.376 1.130 4.869 0.211 0.821 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.308 0.163 0.748 3.641 0.035 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.643 0.361 1.001 3.811 0.205 0.846 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 105 0.348 0.211 0.914 2.452 0.043 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.193 0.080 -0.391 2.024 0.144 0.337 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 122 0.513 0.258 0.641 2.987 0.186 0.774 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 227 0.862 0.468 1.556 5.439 0.229 0.889 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.981 0.967 5.153 45.716 0.347 0.952 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD MEDIAN MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR CORR CORR HINGE HINGE CORR 2430 0.281 0.325 0.007 0.307 -0.712 0.059 0.526 0.946 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 6.79 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 0.13 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.712 FOR SERIES 244 AND 258 25 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.946 FOR SERIES 73 AND 77 109 YEARS |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1595 6663 5069 0.644 0.217 0.792 3.694 0.136 0.862 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.752 0.710 -0.069 0 5069 |---------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ---------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 174. 106. 51. 122. 228. 405. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.862 0.797 0.762 0.716 0.671 0.636 0.609 0.582 0.558 0.539 PACF 0.862 0.212 0.153 0.023 0.003 0.019 0.039 0.023 0.019 0.029 95% C.L. 0.028 0.044 0.054 0.062 0.068 0.073 0.078 0.081 0.085 0.087 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.760 0.644 0.106 0.138 0.021 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1 405 405 0.565 0.206 1.648 5.511 0.050 0.954 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.788 0.562 0.013 0 405 |---------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ---------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 174. 106. 51. 122. 228. 405. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.954 0.933 0.903 0.877 0.851 0.822 0.791 0.767 0.742 0.714 PACF 0.954 0.250 -0.040 0.004 0.004 -0.051 -0.055 0.050 0.017 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.099 0.167 0.212 0.247 0.276 0.301 0.322 0.341 0.358 0.373 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.950 0.622 0.359 ================================================================================ |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 sweds- 1 0.92293996 0.02528435 0.00000000 0.47648105 *** 20-YEAR MEANS OF MEASUREMENTS, CURVE FIT (X), AND INDICES *** MSMT CURVE INDEX YEAR MEANS MEANS MEANS 0 1.19 1.19 0 1.00 0 20 0.92 0.91 X2 1.01 2 40 0.75 0.74 4 1.02 |4 60 0.65 0.63 6 1.02 |6 80 0.57 0.57 X8 1.01 8 100 0.53 0.53 0 1.00 0 120 0.49 0.51 2X 0.95 2| 140 0.45 0.50 4 X 0.91 4 | 160 0.43 0.49 6 X 0.87 6 | 180 0.44 0.48 8 X 0.91 8 | 200 0.42 0.48 0 X 0.88 0 | 220 0.39 0.48 2 X 0.82 2 | 240 0.41 0.48 4 X 0.86 4 | 260 0.51 0.48 X6 1.06 |6 280 0.43 0.48 8 X 0.89 8 | 300 0.50 0.48 X0 1.06 |0 320 0.57 0.48 X 2 1.20 | 2 340 0.60 0.48 X 4 1.27 | 4 360 0.77 0.48 X 6 1.61 | 6 380 0.35 0.48 8 X 0.73 8 | |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 sweds- 1 405 405 1.000 0.203 1.852 8.594 0.050 0.869 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 180 1.009 0.434 0.749 3.800 0.211 0.780 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.371 0.175 0.570 1.927 0.036 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.936 0.400 0.685 3.245 0.206 0.798 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 105 0.435 0.204 0.701 1.507 0.044 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.327 0.133 -0.364 1.891 0.145 0.284 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 122 0.750 0.311 0.343 2.709 0.186 0.732 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 227 1.185 0.516 1.044 4.216 0.229 0.854 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 2.856 1.159 3.855 20.634 0.347 0.939 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD MEDIAN MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR CORR CORR HINGE HINGE CORR 2430 0.202 0.295 0.006 0.223 -0.674 -0.005 0.426 0.875 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 6.79 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 0.13 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.674 FOR SERIES 188 AND 191 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 FOR SERIES 128 AND 138 65 YEARS |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1595 6663 5069 0.960 0.283 0.721 3.707 0.138 0.819 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.709 0.552 -0.036 0 5069 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.819 0.738 0.701 0.646 0.585 0.544 0.512 0.483 0.456 0.435 PACF 0.819 0.204 0.167 0.018 -0.024 0.017 0.032 0.031 0.020 0.021 95% C.L. 0.028 0.043 0.052 0.059 0.064 0.068 0.072 0.075 0.077 0.079 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.694 0.618 0.095 0.167 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.721 0.605 0.553 0.470 0.383 0.328 0.275 0.239 0.209 0.178 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.721 2 0.593 0.178 3 0.568 0.094 0.142 4 0.569 0.094 0.145 -0.006 5 0.568 0.100 0.149 0.018 -0.043 6 0.568 0.100 0.149 0.018 -0.044 0.002 7 0.568 0.100 0.149 0.019 -0.043 0.008 -0.010 8 0.569 0.100 0.150 0.019 -0.046 0.005 -0.023 0.022 9 0.568 0.100 0.150 0.019 -0.046 0.004 -0.024 0.015 0.012 10 0.568 0.100 0.150 0.019 -0.046 0.004 -0.024 0.015 0.014 -0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 51698.77 47983.12 47822.45 47721.46 47723.25 47716.03 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 47718.01 47719.46 47719.04 47720.29 47722.26 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IOPT=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.568 0.094 0.142 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 54.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.568 0.416 0.431 0.364 0.306 0.269 0.233 0.201 0.174 0.1505 0.130 0.113 0.097 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.047 0.041 0.0354 0.031 0.026 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.0083 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.0020 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.655 0.666 0.071 0.098 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.136 0.139 0.128 0.102 MEDIAN 3 0.677 0.668 0.078 0.102 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.183 0.194 0.152 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.089 0.263 -0.257 -0.291 LOWER HINGE 3 0.574 0.564 -0.003 0.036 UPPER HINGE 3 0.757 0.758 0.148 0.166 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.886 1.124 0.557 0.336 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 180 1.001 0.242 0.420 4.545 0.265 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.007 0.087 0.430 1.909 0.101 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.222 0.365 4.086 0.241 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 105 0.006 0.120 0.449 1.368 0.137 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 51 0.984 0.100 -0.917 2.506 0.111 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 122 0.997 0.179 0.163 3.417 0.192 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 227 1.003 0.299 0.612 4.785 0.329 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 405 1.032 0.619 2.608 17.566 0.764 0.076 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD MEDIAN MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR CORR CORR HINGE HINGE CORR 2430 0.284 0.158 0.003 0.298 -0.486 0.191 0.395 0.762 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 6.79 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 0.13 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.486 FOR SERIES 199 AND 208 21 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.762 FOR SERIES 58 AND 59 165 YEARS |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |---------------- GAUSSIAN MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1595 6663 5069 1.001 0.147 0.211 4.046 0.168 -0.080 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.233 0.141 0.051 0 5069 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.080 -0.060 0.022 0.032 -0.026 -0.029 -0.012 -0.001 -0.009 -0.015 PACF -0.080 -0.067 0.012 0.031 -0.019 -0.030 -0.022 -0.008 -0.009 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.011 -0.086 -0.067 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.028 -0.025 -0.031 -0.018 -0.006 -0.012 -0.016 PACF 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.028 -0.025 -0.031 -0.018 -0.006 -0.010 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1595 6663 5069 1.000 0.211 0.550 4.106 0.126 0.706 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.706 0.582 0.524 0.440 0.347 0.282 0.235 0.196 0.161 0.132 PACF 0.706 0.166 0.132 -0.004 -0.050 -0.018 0.004 0.012 0.003 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.028 0.040 0.046 0.050 0.053 0.055 0.056 0.057 0.058 0.058 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.522 0.566 0.089 0.134 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================|